The Election: how the Liberal / Nationals can win

To put it simply, the Liberal National Coalition need to pick up 18 seats without losing any currently held seats to win.

With my predictions, the Coalition will have a net loss of 1 seat, losing Caulfield, Ripon, and Kew, but picking up Hawthorn, Bass and Nepean. Due to the 9 abolished seats, and 9 new seats, The Liberals will lose a seat with Ferntree Gully absorbed by Bayswater, likely to be retained by Labor.

So, how could the Liberals hypothetically win?

It’s unlikely the LNP would be able to form a minority government and would need to form a majority government, so there are 18 seats that need to be won.

Firstly, they’d need to hold Caulfield, Ripon and Kew which is well within the realms of possibility. This puts the LNP at net +2

Now, just 16 to go

They could potentially pick up seats like Morwell (IND, Russell North, retiring 2018: 1.84%), Mildura (IND, Ali Cupper 2018: 0.34%), Bayswater (LAB, Jackson Taylor 2018: 0.39%), Yan Yean (LAB, Danielle Green 2018: 7.03%), Box Hill (LAB, Paul Hamer 2018: 2.1%), Ringwood (LAB, Dustin Halse 2018: 2.82%), South Barwon (LAB, Darren Cheeseman 2018: 4.6%) and Shepparton (IND, Suzanna Sheed 2018: 5.3%)

Which leaves 8 seats.

New seat Pakenham is expected to turn Red, however, I wouldn’t write off David Farrelly.

Ashwood is also a new division, and despite it covering two Labor electorates (Burwood, with Will Fowles 3.31% margin; Mount Waverly, Matt Fregon with 1.85% margin), the margin for both means it’s also a possible LNP gain for author Asher Judah.

Half a dozen to go for the opposition to take government.

From this point forward, things get a little more difficult, as not only do they need ALL of the above seats to fall their way, they need to pick up seats that have a more than 5% margin.

The new seat of Eureka takes in a large swathe of Buninyong, a safe Labor seat for Michaela Settle (12.24% 2018), however the new division also takes in some of Liberal stronghold Polwarth which could favour Liberal candidate, Moorabool Shire Councillor and Former Mayor Paul Tatchell, so in a perfect world for the Liberals, let’s chalk this up to them as well.

This leaves things at roughly 40-43, but Labor would more than likely be the preferred choice for the 5 Greens MPs to side with.

We need to find 5 more.

Since we’re factoring in luck and a perfect scenario for the Coalition, let’s predict a safe Labor seat will fall due to controversy, a shock retirement, defection, or other extraordinary event.

The final four

These seats could come from somewhat outside chances for the LNP, like Western Melbourne electorates of Melton, Werribee or Kororoit.

Melton has seen plenty of attention from Liberal leader Matthew Guy with promises to upgrade an unkempt Western Freeway (which also passes through Kororoit), a promise to fast-track the Melton hospital which is under construction to the south of the satellite city, and other transport related promises which may fall favourably to voters who currently cram on to busy V-Line trains, paying $9.60.

Liberal candidate Graham Watt has certainly been out and about, with volunteers doorknocking and putting up to 2 pamphlets in letterboxes each day, and it is Steve McGhie’s first term – seeing Labor’s primary vote drop by 15% in 2018, to hold on by just 4.2%, it will be vital to see where preferences flow.

Dr Ian Birchall, running as an independent is tipped by some as the most likely to take the seat from Mr. McGhie, however the independent only picked up 10.5% of the primary vote – a big enough chunk to sway the Labor/Liberal contest.

Labor may have also fallen out of favour in the seat of Kororoit with current member Marlene Kairouz retiring after losing pre-selection to Rail Tram and Bus Union State Secretary Luba Grigorovitch, parachuted in. We all know how well parachuting in a high-profile candidate (re: Kristina Keneally), especially one with a controversial past according to The Age.

Could this be enough to slash a 20% margin, one of the safest in the state? The Liberals will be hoping so

Werribee is expected to be a close contest between State Treasurer Tim Pallas (LAB) and outspoken Wyndham Shire Councillor Mia Shaw (LIB).

Independent Joe Garra finished second in the 2018 election, but will this time contest the new seat Point Cook.

The Liberals could hypothetically take all three of the traditionally working-class Western Suburbs seats as voter confidence in the Labor party may have been impacted by the pandemic lockdowns.

This leaves the LNP on 44 seats, requiring just one more for outright majority government

The last seat

All of the following seats are under a 10% margin, and could also be a miracle for the LNP

Geelong (6.23%), Narre Warren South (6.9%) Pascoe Vale (8.58%), Monbulk (8.61%), Eltham (9%), Frankston (9.7%)

Picking up a few of these seats could give the LNP a safe buffer from any of the previous 17 seats not going the Liberal’s way.

What is the likelihood of all of the above happening?

About 1 in 20, according to an amalgamation of betting websites and opinion polls.

A Labor Majority Government is 77% likely, Labor Minority is 13%, while the Liberals are at around 8% chance to form government.

But for rusted-on conservatives, they point to the latest Newscorp sourced opinion poll which has the two majors neck-and-neck on primary votes. This is after a little manipulation of the data, allocating “undecided” voters to a party with Labor and the LNP on 38% each, Greens 14%, Independent 8% and others on 3%

Unadjusted, the poll shows Labor ahead 33.9% to 33.4% over the LNP, with 10.4% uncommitted.

Of the 10.4%, more than a quarter would “lean to Labor, even if only slightly” while only one-fifth would choose the Liberal party.

How will the cards fall?

Only time will tell.