Four more seats have now entered my “seats to watch” category, along with some previously mentioned in my earlier post: The Election, two weeks to go

The seats of Brighton, Prahran and Mornington are no longer as close as expected, with Pakenham, Melton and Glen Waverley taking their place on the list.

Albert Park is also now on the list of seats to watch.

I’ve only made one change to my predictions made two weeks ago, with Brighton now going the way of incumbent Liberal Member James Newbury.

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The Parties

Labor

At this stage I’m projecting Labor to win 52 seats, a net loss of 3 from 2018.

This will give Daniel Andrews and Labor a Majority Government for a third term.

I predict they will lose 6 seats: 3 Liberalss, 2 Greens, 1 Independent.

I predict they will gain 2 seats, 1 Liberal, 1 Independent

I predict they lose a further 6 seats to abolished districts

I predict they gain a further 7 seats in new districts

Liberal National Coalition

At this stage, I’m projecting the LNP to win 25 seats, a net loss of 2 from 2018

This will give Matthew Guy his second straight election loss, and the Liberal/National coalition it’s third straight loss.

I predict they will lose 4 seats: 3 Independents, 1 Labor

I predict they will gain 3 seats, all from Labor

I predict they will lose a further 3 seats to abolished districts

I predict they will gain a further 2 seats in new districts

Greens

At this stage, I’m projecting the Greens to win 5 seats, a net gain of 3 from 2018

I predict they will retain all 3 current seats

I predict they will gain 2 seats, both from Labor

Independents

At this stage, I’m projecting the Independents to win in 6 seats, which will see 3 more independents than 2018

I predict 1 independent will lose their seat, to Labor.

I predict 3 Independents will win seats from the Liberals,

I predict 1 Independent will win a seat from Labor

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Key Seats

Pakenham

After Caulfield and Benambra, Pakenham is the third-closest seat according to my projections.

It’s a tough one to project, however, as it is a new seat made up mostly of the abolished Gembrook district.

The VEC’s projection for 2PP is Labor with a 2.2% margin.

Labor’s candidate Emma Vulin is a CFA volunteer firefighter and lieutenant, and has worked for both Federal and State MPs.

The Liberal Candidate is David Farrelly, who describes himself as having worked primarily in the design and construction industry for over 25 years.

Gembrook’s current member, Brad Battin isn’t contesting Pakenham, he’s a candidate in Berwick

Prediction: Emma Vulin to scrape home, but this could be very close.

Melton

The incumbent MP in Melton, Steve McGhie, could be in real strife but not from the Liberal Candidate who’s been very visible in this election, but from Independent Dr. Ian Birchall.

Liberal candidate Graham Watt has certainly been out and about, with volunteers doorknocking and putting up to 2 pamphlets in letterboxes each day, and it is Mr. McGhie’s first term – seeing Labor’s primary vote drop by 15% in 2018, to hold on by just 4.2%, it will be vital to see where preferences flow.

Mr Watt managed to bring in Liberal Leader Matthew Guy to announce $1.5b in funding for roads in Melbourne’s west, including $700 million to upgrade the Western Highway to “urban freeway standard” between the Western Ring Road and Melton (which also takes in the district of Kororiot)

Dr. Birchall, running as an independent is tipped by some as the most likely to take the seat from Mr. McGhie, however the independent only picked up 10.5% of the primary vote – only enough to sway the Labor/Liberal contest after coming third in the primary vote.

The How To Vote card registered by Dr Birchall. lists the Liberal and Labor candidates 11th and 12th respectively, out of 14 candidates in the electorate, which could mean Melton may be one of the last districts called with preference flows and counting taking considerably longer than other districts.

Betting agency Sports Bet had Mr McGhie at the short odds of $1.35 earlier this month, but the Labor candidate has now blown out to be $2.05, likely to lose his seat to the independent.

Dr Birchall has firmed from $6.00 in October to be favourite at $1.75, while Mr. Watt has seen the biggest drop in odds, now out to $10

Prediction: Despite the betting agency favouring the independent, I believe it will come down to a two-party battle between the Labor and Liberal candidates. If Dr. Birchall can increase his primary votes by 5%, he may see enough preferences from other candidates flow his way, putting him above Labor or the Liberals. Either way, with both parties preferencing him ahead of the other, if Dr. Birchall is in the last 2 candidates remaining, he wins. Otherwise it’s Labor. The only prediction I’m making is this seat will take a long time to officially call.

Glen Waverley

Glen Waverley is another new district, taking in mostly Forest Hill (abolished) but also a large chunk of Mount Waverley (abolished, mostly to Ashwood), both of which have Labor members.

Contesting Glen Waverley for the Liberal party is Neil Angus, currently representing Forest Hill.

Mr Angus is a rarity for the Liberal Party – he’s actually been in Government. He has held his seat since 2010 – not many Libs have won their seat in three elections.

He’ll face some stiff competition from the Labor candidate, with the VEC’s projection that the seat has a 1.1% Liberal margin.

Labor’s candidate John Mullahy is the son of migrant parents, and has been associated with Labor for ten years.

Glen Waverley has always been predicted to go to the Libs, however the Labor candidate has been making himself very visible, despite no major local policies or funding announcements.

Prediction: Neil Angus to win Glen Waverley

Albert Park

Martin Foley is the current member for Albert Park, many would know “grandad” from his updates as Health Minister at the daily press conferences during COVID.

Albert Park is a district very close to Melbourne’s CBD, and after the resignation of Deputy Premier John Thwaites a by-election was held in 2007. The then Australian Services Union Secretary Martin Foley was pre-selected for Labor after also working for as Chief of Staff for the Minister for Agriculture and later Minister for Police. Mr Foley comfortably retained the seat for Labor with a 7% margin.

Mr Foley announced his retirement in July, and with a handy 10.1% margin, it was expected Labor’s new candidate would glide into a safe seat.

Nina Taylor is a Southern Metropolitan MLC, and is facing a huge battle to hold onto her seat from a strong Greens candidate, Kim Samiotis

Ms. Taylor was as short as $1.20 to retain the seat for Labor in October, but the odds have tumbled out to $1.60.

Ms Samiotis is $2.60, well ahead of the Liberals candidate Lauren Sherson – $15

Prediction: Labor to hold, but see a HUGE chunk of swing against.