Overview

In a fortnight, we’ll know who will be running our state, Daniel Andrews hoping to guide Labor to a third successive four-year term, while Matthew Guy is taking a second crack at ousting Mr. Andrews, and will be aiming to prove the opinion polls wrong and causing one of the biggest election upsets Victoria’s history.

At the previous election in 2018, Labor (LAB) cruised to another victory, picking up 10 seats and a handy 4.77% boost to its primary vote, and a 5.31% increase in two-party preferred lead over the Liberal-National Coalition (LNP).

The LNP, requiring 7 seats to take control of the government ended up losing more than a quarter of its seats, 11 in total, leading to the term “Dan-slide“

Election and political analysts look back at 2018 and expect it to be a high-water mark for the Andrews Labor Government, with most predicting a net-loss of seats for the party.

As it stands now, the LNP needs to pick up 18 seats, without losing any seats it currently holds, the LNP’s biggest election win in recent history was 30 years ago. Jeff Kennett’s LNP won 19 seats off Joan Kirner’s LAB, one seat less than the largest election landslide in the past 50 years – Steve Bracks sweeping LAB to victory picking up 20 seats in 2002

The largest election landslide in history for Victoria was in 1955 after John Cain’s LAB government was defeated by a motion of no-confidence in the Legislative Assembly. The resulting election saw Henry Bolte sneaking in to power, taking 22 seats to scrape into minority government.

Labor can afford to lose 10 seats, and still maintain a majority in the lower house.

Key Seats

According to “the spreadsheet” (a closely guarded spreadsheet full of formulas and predictions), I predict the following seats to be seats to watch

Caulfield

Currently held by Liberal David Southwick, who’s held the seat since 2010, the division of Caulfield has only ever been a conservative electorate.

Labor’s candidate, Lior Harel, is giving up 20 years of private sector legal work to contest the seat, however I’m predicting a third candidate, former Labor member and now Independent (backed by Climate 200) Nomi Kaltmann to, if not win the seat, hand a huge flow of preferences to Labor and kick out the current Deputy Liberal Leader.

Prediction: David Southwick to lose seat, but it’s a coin-flip for who wins out of LAB/IND

Hawthorn

Hawthorn was a surprise seat picked up by Labor in the 2018 election, with John Kennedy taking the seat from former Lawyer and former Shadow Attorney General John Pesutto, who took over the seat from former Liberal Premier Ted Baillieu.

Mr. Pesutto is back as the Liberal candidate this year and has maintained a public presence with regular appearances on Melbourne radio, and as a columnist for The Age.

Contesting the seat as a “teal” Independent (with the backing of Climate 200) is Melissa Lowe, hoping to replicate what happened in the Suburb of Hawthorn’s Federal Seat of Kooyong, where Teal Independent Monique Ryan unseated Federal Treasurer Josh Frydenberg.

Prediction: Pesutto to regain his seat for the Liberal party

Brighton

Brighton is yet another three-way-battle with incumbent first-term Liberal MP James Newbury up against Labor’s Louise Crawford – a former Port Phillip Mayor and TV actress, and three independent candidates, anti-vaxer and conspiracy theorist John Tiger Casley; former Bayside Mayor Felicity Frederico; and writer Sally Gibson.

Prediction: Felicity Frederico to win the seat with the help of Labor preferences

Benambra

Liberal MP Bill Tilley has held the seat of Benambra since 2006. The division is in the state’s North East, taking in the major city of Wodonga and has been held by a conservative since its inception in 1877.

In 2018, independent Jacqui Hawkins took a 7.2% swing away from the incumbent leaving Mr. Tilley with a margin of just 2.45%, after the Liberal MP suffered a 6.3% swing away in 2014 at the hands of Labor candidate Jennifer Podesta.

Mark Tait contested the seat in 2018 for Labor and was ahead of Ms. Hawkins on primary vote (7,467 to 6,687) however the Independent was ahead by the time second- and third- preferences rolled around leaving the two-candidate contest to be between Ms. Hawkins and Mr. Tilley.

Prediction: Jacqui Hawkins to win the seat, with the help of Labor, Greens and Animal Justice Party preferences.

Prahran

Ahh Prahran, or as the locals pronounce it “Praaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaan”

The Greens Sam Hibbins picked up this inner Melbourne division from the Liberals in 2014 by just 277 votes, and held off Liberal candidate Katie Allen in 2018 with the support of Labor preferences. Ms. Allen was ahead on primary votes (LNP: 13,956, LAB: 11,702, GRE: 11,347)

Ms. Allen won pre-selection of the similarly located Federal seat of Higgins in the 2019 election, taking over from Liberal MP Kelly O’Dwyer, Ms. Allen would go on to contest and win the seat, but lose it in the 2022 Federal Election

Labor has endorsed Wesa Chau as their candidate

Prediction: Greens to hold on, only thanks to the Liberals preferencing the Greens ahead of Labor.

Bayswater

This outer eastern Melbourne division has been predominantly held by the Liberals since it’s creation in 1992, with Labor holding for just two separate terms – Peter Lockwood in 2002-2006, and Jackson Taylor who was elected in 2018.

Mr. Taylor won the seat with a swing of a tick over 5%, but a margin of just 0.39% – 296 votes – another surprise 2018 win for the Labor Government.

Mr. Taylor faces stiff competition from Liberal MP Nick Wakeling, currently representing the abolished seat of Ferntree Gully.

Mr. Wakeling has held that seat since 2006, re-elected in 2018 with a margin of 1.64%

Prediction: Jackson Taylor to hold for Labor, but another sub 500 vote margin

Mornington

Liberal MP David Morris is retiring after serving 4 terms, and has seen his margin dip from a high of 66% in 2010 to 54.99% in the 2018 election.

The division has never been out of conservative hands in two iterations, the first from 1859-1967, and the second from 1985 onwards.

Liberal Candidate Chris Crewther will be hoping to turn around last election’s swing of 7.61%, otherwise he’ll hand the seat over.

Mr. Crewther was the Federal Member for Dunkley (Mornington Peninsula) for one term (2016-2019), and also contested the rural seat of Mallee in the state’s north-west in 2013, but lost to Nationals candidate Andrew Broad.

Also contesting the seat for Labor is nurse Georgia Fowler (not the Victoria’s Secret model), and Teal Independent Dr. Kate Lardner, who has the Climate 200 tick.

Prediction: Chris Crewther to retain the seat for the Liberals

Ripon

This electorate is to the west of Ballarat and Bendigo, and includes Creswick, Ararat, Maryborough and St Arnaud

Ripon was an absolute nail-biter in 2018 with incumbent Liberal Louise Staley holding on to her seat by just 15 votes, despite numerous recounts and a legal challenge by Labor candidate Sarah De Santis.

There was 3,606 informal votes

In 2014, Ms. Staley was also elected by a very slim margin, just 601 votes.

A major redistribution in 2021 puts Labor ahead by almost 3%

Martha Haylett is the Labor candidate, she grew up in central Victoria and has a background in public policy advocacy in the areas of homelessness and public housing

Ms. Haylett has worked as an adviser to Premier Daniel Andrews

Prediction: Martha Haylett to win the seat for Labor